IPCC Special Report 1.5° - & some considerations re UNFCCC-Compliance

 Click logo to return to 'links-page'

 

This is the table in Chapter 2 (page 108) of the IPCC Special Report on 1.5° quoted by Greta Thunberg in the US & in Canada.
It relates to 'remainder carbon budgeting' estimates for 1.5° with odds from 66% to 33% likelihood, measured per-unit-time.




Converting those numbers from [a] Carbon Dioxide (Gt CO2) to [b] carbon only (Gt C) means divide [a] by 3.6667 to get [b] (& vice versa).



We can chart these as carbon budget totals per se and compare with the demand from Extinction Rebellion to zero emissions globally by 2025 . . .



and as carbon budget totals per unit time and compare with the demand from Extinction Rebellion to zero emissions globally by 2025 . . .



It becomes clear that there's not such a difference between 66% odds for limiting future temperature rise to 1.5° from the IPCC
with feedbacks accounted for (zero by 2030) and the demand from Extinction Rebellion for emissions to be at (net) zero by 2025.


Some reaction to the XR position has been sheer incredulity. The BBC was amongst those who publicly denounced it saying it was completely impossible.
This may now be the case but that is a political rather than a scientific judgement. In this sense XR is being less political & more scientific than its critics.



UNFCCC-Compliance