The Carbon Budget Analysis Tool (CBAT)
 


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CBAT Domain 1 - Contraction & Concentrations

This is the CBAT Domain 1, the module for the cognitive mapping of positive feedback potential and control . . .
Study the image below for the controls and then click the image below to get to the real-time user-chooser animation


Rationalizing 'feedback-dynamics' - the monster in the model.

In CBAT the known and the unknown-unknowns concerning the sign and the extent of feedback rates are rationalized as follows.
The constant airborne faction of CO2 emissions (CAF) is a key 'reference-value' & this has been set at 50%. CAF 50 is what we are now at.

This method simply reflects that as things now stand, every two years the atmosphere retains the equivalent of 100% of one year's CO2 emissions.
Doing this enables the 'feedback control' slider (slider D) then to be user-set to reflect the extent to which un future CAF may be either: -

  1. below CAF-50 (overall negative feedback) or
  2. above CAF-50 (overall postive feedback)

    NB the mechanism embodies this: -

  3. the smaller/faster the carbon emissions budget, the more slider D options are towards overall negative feedback (below CAF-50)
  4. the bigger/slower the carbon emissions budget, the more slider D options are towards overall positive feedback (above CAF-50)

(see more detail below)

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On opening, the default setting is the contraction rate of global emissions - the global 'carbon-budget' - as in the UK Climate Act.
UKMO et al assumed overal negative feedback at around CAF-45. We are already at the much more dangerous CAF-50.

CBAT is 'cognitive-mapping', so the CBAT-user can increase or decrease this 'carbon-budget' and separately, the potential for the consequential change rates arising:
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  • 'Domain One' - 'Contraction & Concentrations', with response arrays of 'climate feedbacks' & 'climate-effects' (temperature, sea level rise and ocean acidifcation)
  • 'Domain Two' - 'Contraction and Convergence' where regional shares converge on the international per capita average arising
  • 'Domain Three' - 'Contraction and Conversion' exploring the interactive rate at which fossil fuel consumption needs to be replaced with renewable sources
  • 'Domain Four' - 'Climate Damages and Growth' exploring the rate of the climate-damage curves arising from different rates of carbon contraction

A description of CBAT by Plan-B was published thereafter; a technical note is here; Appreciation is here.

CBAT Domain One is the basis of all four Domains in CBAT; all Domains are user-interactive.
Within the structure described below, CBAT Domain one embodies the crucial distinction between: -

  • Budget emissions/atmosphere-concentrations (effectively feedback-free modelling) and
  • Feedback emissions-effects/atmosphere-concentrations (which amplify the climate-effects + budget-emissions/concentrations).
  • Considerable detail about these matters was provided to the EAC Enquiries into 'Carbon Budgets in the UK Climate Act' in 2009 & 2013.

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CBAT Domain 1 - Contraction & Concentrations Budget-Emissions without feedback, gives 'keeping control' curvature

Budget emissions/concentrations are what climate modellers using carbon-cycle climate models have tended mainly to focus on in the past. These are relatively easy to model,
as budget emissions are measured as 'human' emissions from Oil, Coal, Gas and Land-Use Change and the 'known-unknowns' of feedback emissions-effects are mostly omitted.

The modelling assumption has been that as atmospheric concentrations have always been a 'Constant Airborne Fraction' of emissions at around 50% of emissions (CAF 50) in the past,
this will continue in future. In CBAT as & if budget emissions fall, the rise of concentrations will slow as CAF 50 decreases, & start to fall if budget emissions go to zero rapidly.

In this modelling paradigm of 'climate control', 'climate-scientist's' cut out all the unknowns about feedbacks and the inter-activity of the rates of feedback & hence uncertainty about these.
So the key curve-shape of concentrations is always convex, where keeping-control-curvature shows deceleration. This obvious deficiency was mapped onto all the RCP Scenarios in IPCC AR5.

  • A - Atmospheric CO2 Concentration

    • a1 CAF 50% (to cross-reference emissions:concentrations - 1 PPMV CO2 equals 2.13 Gt C)
    • a2 CAF 100% (to cross-reference emissions:concentrations - 1 PPMV CO2 equals 2.13 Gt C)
    • a3 Year Slider 2010-2110 (NB a3 & b3 are deliberately locked together)

  • B - CO2 ‘Budget Emissions’

    • b1 Lowest Budget in CBAT
    • b2 Highest Budget in CBAT
    • b3 Year Slider 2010-2110 (NB a3 & b3 are deliberately locked together)

  • C - Slider - Budget Control
  • D - Slider - Feedback Control

  • E - Slider - Climate Effects Control for a range of potential effects wider than considered in the IPCC.
    These measure wider with the amplification of climate effects on the enslaved: -

    • F - Temperature Change (left-hand bar time-transient to right-hand bar outcome value in 2110)
    • G - Sea Level Rise (left-hand bar time-transient to right-hand bar outcome value in 2110)
    • H - Ocean Acidity ((left-hand bar time-transient to right-hand bar outcome value in 2110)

  • I - Dynamic ‘Values Table’

    The left-hand slider in the panel top right-hand corner varies the 'carbon-weight'. Covering the period 2010 to 2110 Gt C, the integral-weight
    of the 'global carbon budget' in Domain 1 (as with all 4 CBAT Domains) ranges between 197 to 593 Gt C.

    The blue chart on the left at the bottom drawing CO2 emissions, responds to the budget slider between the lower and upper limits shown.
    The lines chart above shows atmospheric CO2 concentrations with budget-emissions accumulating at a constant 50% and at a constant 100%.

    The table below the sliders is dynamic. All the numbers shown will always correspond with the carbon-weight of the budget-emissions chosen with the slider etc.
    If a budget of 400 Gt C is chosen (see above the slider), the bottom right-hand column of the table will also show 400Gt C at 2100 and so on.

CBAT Domain 1 - Contraction & Concentrations Feedback Emissions gives potential 'loss of control' curvature

When potential feedback emissions/concentrations/effects are added, the key curve-shape gradually gives way to concave or acceleration curvature. Once feedback effects take hold,
more warming becomes locked in & there is little we can do about this. So in this modelling paradigm, uncertainties, unknowns & unknowability' mean that from now on unless 'budget-emissions control' is very tight, we inevitably face an increasing loss of 'climate control'. This goes beyond the "careful & ultra-conservative feedback-modelling" (1:02:08) published in the IPCC over the last 30 years.


  • A - Atmospheric CO2 Concentration potential ranges between

    • a1 Positive-Feedback Concentrations
    • a2 Negative-Feedback Concentrations
    • a3 Year Slider 2010-2110 (NB a3 & b3 are deliberately locked together)

  • B - CO2 ‘Feedback Emissions’ potential ranges between

    • b1 Positive-Feedback Emissions
    • b2 Negative-Feedback Emissions

      Note that the bigger the Budget Emissions total, the more likely the net feedback
      effect triggered is 'positive' i.e. showing 'acceleration - or loss of control - curvature'.
      In other words as the Emission Budget total increases, the 'positive feedback potential' does too.

    • b3 Year Slider 2010-2110 (NB a3 & b3 are deliberately locked together)

  • C - Slider - Budget Control
  • D - Slider - Feedback Control

  • E - Slider - Climate Effects Control for a range of potential effects wider than considered in the IPCC
    These measure wider with the amplification of climate with feedback effects on the enslaved: -

    • F - Temperature Change (left-hand bar time-transient to right-hand bar outcome value in 2110)
    • G - Sea Level Rise (left-hand bar time-transient to right-hand bar outcome value in 2110)
    • H - Ocean Acidity (left-hand bar time-transient to right-hand bar outcome value in 2110)

  • I - Dynamic ‘Values Table’ reflecting all and any changes as a result of user-changes.
The right-hand slider in the panel top right-hand corner varies the 'carbon-weight'. Covering the period 2010 to 2110 Gt C, the integral-weight
of the 'global carbon budget' plus 'feedbcak emissions/effects' in Domain 1 (as with all 4 CBAT Domains) ranges between net 100 Gt C & 889 Gt C.

The blue chart on the left at the bottom drawing CO2 emissions, responds between the lower and upper feedback limits within the slider window shown;
The lines chart above shows atmospheric CO2 concentrations with collective emissions accumulating at a rate dictated by feedback emissions/effects shown.

The table below the sliders is dynamic. All the numbers shown will always correspond with the carbon-weight of the budget-emissions chosen with the slider etc.
However, a budget of 400 Gt C plus whatever weight/rate of feedback and climate effects has been chosen by the user, the table will also show the combined effect of these.

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