Contraction & Convergence, 'C&C'
in the UK Climate Act & the Carbon Budget Analysis Tool (2010-2100)


 Click logo to return to 'general links-page'

 

"Measure what is measurable, and make measurable what is not so" (Galileo Galilei).

The functionality of the four domains of 'CBAT' (see below) is the principle that Well Tempering commutes (it all adds up).
Usually applied in musical tuning, Well Tempering is a universal constant, making 'C&C' 'The Well Tempered Climate Accord'.


Introduced in 2013, CBAT Domain One correctly projected the acceleration-potential in atmospheric concentrations and global Temperature that we now see.

**********************************

CBAT Domain 1 deals with 'carbon-budget-emissions' CO2 concentrations & 'feedback-effects'.
It dynamically examines & compares potential for any rapidly inter-acting-feedback-effects arising (RIAFE).

Continuing this, domains 2, 3 & 4 deal with analysis & strategy. They automatically pick up the user-selected carbon-budget emissions & feedback effects user-selected in Domain one.

In other words, CBAT is a non-chaotic method of facing the negative/positive-feedback-arrays of both known, the unknowd and the unknown-unknowns in the rapid & increasingly dangerous climate dynamics that are now obviously developing.

Considering these dangers, the apex-need is to organise & act in a non-random & precautionary way.
Tough but true, a plan is needed, as not to have a plan - let-alone a deal - deepens the dynamics of climate chaos.

**********************************

 Click logo to go to 'CBAT-start page' (Domain One)

On opening, the default setting is the contraction rate of global emissions - the global 'carbon-budget' - in the UK Climate Act.

It is 'cognitive-mapping', so the CBAT-user can increase or decrease this 'carbon-budget' in Domain One.
This sets Domains 2, 3, & 4 with feedback risk-potential in arrays for the consequential change-rates arising: -

  • 'Domain One' - 'Contraction & Concentrations', with response arrays with and without 'climate feedbacks' & 'climate-effects' (temperature, sea level rise & ocean acidifcation)

  • 'Domain Two' - 'Contraction and Convergence' where regional shares converge on the international per capita average arising for the global carbon budget chosen

  • 'Domain Three' - 'Contraction and Conversion' exploring the rates at which fossil fuel consumption contracts & needs to be replaced with renewable sources at rates arising.

  • 'Domain Four' - 'Climate Damages and Growth' exploring the rate of the climate-damage curves arising from different rates of carbon contraction; the core of this is the bigger the carbon budget, the faster climate-damages overwhelm GDP growth.

"Simple, robust, C&C insight into the problem of climate mitigation bears the hallmark of true genius."
Andrew Dlugolecki
at COP-6 The Hague 2000.

  1. A description of CBAT is here;
  2. A technical note is here;
  3. General appreciation is here

    *************************************************************************

The Carbon Budget Analysis Tool (CBAT) was developed with support from Mayer Hillman & Jelle Hielkema.
Their logos (the boar & the decagon) appear on the CBAT user-interface.