Contraction & Convergence, 'C&C'
in the UK Climate Act & the Carbon Budget Analysis Tool (2010-2100)


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Here are the four science-strategy-policy 'domains' of CBAT.
Domain 1 deals with the 'Monster in the Models', rapidly interacting climate-feedback-dynamics.

Domains 2, 3 & 4 deal with analysis & strategy. They automatically pick up the user-selected carbon-budget emissions & feedback dynamics in user-selected in Domain one.

In other words, CBAT is a method of facing the 'Monster in the Models'; the positive-feedback-array of both known & unknown unknowns in the rapid and dangerous climate dynamics that are now developing.

Considering the dangers we now face, the apex-need is to organise & act in a risk-averse and precautionary way. Tough but true, not to so - not to have a plan - deepens the likelihood of climate chaos.

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On opening, the default setting is the contraction rate of global emissions - the global 'carbon-budget' - in the UK Climate Act.

It is 'cognitive-mapping', so the CBAT-user can increase or decrease this 'carbon-budget' in Domain One with feedback risk potential & separately, arrays for the consequential change-rates arising: -

  • 'Domain One' - 'Contraction & Concentrations', with response arrays of 'climate feedbacks' & 'climate-effects' (temperature, sea level rise and ocean acidifcation)

  • 'Domain Two' - 'Contraction and Convergence' where regional shares converge on the international per capita average arising

  • 'Domain Three' - 'Contraction and Conversion' exploring the rates at which fossil fuel consumption contracts & needs to be replaced with renewable sources at rates arising.

  • 'Domain Four' - 'Climate Damages and Growth' exploring the rate of the climate-damage curves arising from different rates of carbon contraction

"Simple, robust, its insight into the problem of climate mitigation bears the hallmark of true genius."
Andrew Dlugolecki
at COP-6 The Hague 2000.

  1. A description of CBAT is here;
  2. A technical note is here;
  3. General appreciation is here

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