The Carbon Budget Analysis Tool (CBAT)
 

 Click logo to return to 'CBAT-general-page'


Here are the four 'domains' of CBAT where domains 2, 3 & 4 automatically pick up the user-selected carbon-budget emissions in domain 1.
On opening, the default setting is the contraction rate of global emissions - the global 'carbon-budget' - in the UK Climate Act.

It is 'cognitive-mapping', so the CBAT-user can increase or decrease this 'carbon-budget' and separately, the potential for the consequential change rates arising:
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  • 'Domain One' - 'Contraction & Concentrations', with response arrays of 'climate feedbacks' & 'climate-effects' (temperature, sea level rise and ocean acidifcation)
  • 'Domain Two' - 'Contraction and Convergence' where regional shares converge on the international per capita average arising
  • 'Domain Three' - 'Contraction and Conversion' exploring the interactive rate at which fossil fuel consumption needs to be replaced with renewable sources
  • 'Domain Four' - 'Climate Damages and Growth' exploring the rate of the climate-damage curves arising from different rates of carbon contraction

A description of CBAT by Plan-B was published thereafter; a technical note is here; Appreciation is here.

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CBAT Domain Four - Damages & Growth Minus Damages (Click image to animate)

The size (integral-weight, rate and date) of the 'global carbon budget' in Domain 4 (as with all 4 CBAT Domains)
is the primary user control in this Domain (see slider in the panel top right-hand corner).

With a constant rate of global economic growth (here at 3%/year) the main point shown is that: -

  • the smaller the budget, the lesser the climate damages
  • the bigger the budget, the greater the climate damages

When the rate of climate damages is subtracted from that constant rate of global economic growth,
the main points shown are that: -

  • the smaller the budget, the less the GDP rate is negatively affected
  • the bigger the budget, the more the GDP rate is negatively affected

  • the slower the damages, the less the GDP rate is negatively affected
  • the faster the damages, the more the GDP rate is negatively affected

  • before a certain damage rate, the GDP rate is negatively affected but remains net-positive
  • beyond a certain damage rate, the GDP is negatively affected and goes net-negative

Other user-controls are: -

  • the initial percent of damages as a proportion of GDP (choose from 1% to 10%)
  • the 'Ghost budget' behind the GDP & damage curves (choose Domain Two (C&C) or Domain Three (fuels & renewables)

  • these always respond in synch with the size of the carbon budget chosen in Domain Four
  • the inclusion of climate feedback effects, which are significantly stronger when the carbon budget is larger

  • the spot year is the solid vertical blue line in the main chart; it is 'draggable' between 2010 & 2110
  • so the tables (lower right-hand panel) and center (upper mid panel)
    always respond numerically to all the choice combinations made with the other controls.

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