Lower temperature for higher CO2 emissions in future (!) Is this why climate modellers get a bad name?

 

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  1. All Country CREDIT DEBIT
  2. C&C first 20 years
  3. EAC Carbon Budget Enquiries
  4. C&C is Embedded in 'CBAT', the Carbon Budget Analysis Tool
  5. Collaboration with Plan-B
  6. Damages Liabilities
  7. Judicial Review
  8. HMG dodgy statistics 
  9. Sane Safe Fair - Why does HMG insist on a UK CO2 share >3 times its equal share?
  10. IPCC Miracle for AR6 - more carbon equals less temperature
  11. Assumptions (ideology vs logic)
  12. 'Dominance' (Music)

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IPCC's 5th Assessment Report (AR5 2015): -

  • showed RCP (Representative Concentrations Pathway) future CO2 emissions scenario 2.6 (coloured RED) falling after 2020
  • with CO2 concentrations rising to 443 PPMV by 2050 then falling to 420 PPMV by 2100
  • while slowing the rising temperature outcome to being stable at 2.0°C by 2100.

This seems to stretch plausibility due to omitted feedback effects during that time.

However, preparations for IPCC's
6th Assessment Report (AR6 due 2022?): -

  • show the new SSP (Shared Socio-economic Pathway) scenario 2.6 (coloured BLUE): -
  • which adds 50 Gt C (BLUE) to future emissions, barely altering CO2 concentrations,
  • while this markedy increases the fraction-of-emissions returned,
  • the fraction-of-emissions retained appears almost 'constant'
  • together these are an improbably strengthened sink-function,
  • while at the same time, this actually lowers the temperature outcome
  • from 2.0°C to 1.7°C or 1.8°C by 2100 which seems wildly improbable.

Regardless of any debate about the sink-function, this truly seems to be wholly implausible.
How on earth is it possible to get a lower temperature outcome from more (not less) future CO2 emissions?


  1. All Country CREDIT DEBIT
  2. C&C first 20 years
  3. EAC Carbon Budget Enquiries
  4. C&C is Embedded in 'CBAT', the Carbon Budget Analysis Tool
  5. Collaboration with Plan-B
  6. Damages Liabilities
  7. Judicial Review
  8. HMG dodgy statistics 
  9. Sane Safe Fair - Why does HMG insist on a UK CO2 share >3 times its equal share?
  10. IPCC Miracle for AR6 - more carbon equals less temperature
  11. Assumptions (ideology vs logic)
  12. 'Dominance' (Music)