UKMO Admission of Major Feedbacks Omission from its models

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This formed part of GCI's evidence submitted to the EAC Enquiry in June 2013.
It pointed out that the UKMO itself had said major feedback effects had been ommited from its climate modelling.

When they denied that they had omitted feedback effects from the climate modelling in their spoken evidence to the EAC
GCI rebutted their denial. Quite obviously the major feedback effects ommitted are *not* covered by this deliberately
misleading reply from Julia Slingo, UKMO's chief scientific officer at the time, ludicrously pretending they had a
*full earth system* model worthy of the name.

“We have, as I think has already been made clear for the (IPCC's) fifth assessment report, entered the fifth assessment
with a full earth system model that includes feedbacks associated with the terrestrial carbon cycle.

It includes dynamic vegetation, so this is the long-term changes in forests and shrub land and so on,
ocean bio-geochemistry and interactive atmospheric chemistry.

To which she conspicuously added: - “we have probably contributed more model simulations than virtually any
other group in the world, so we take the IPCC process very seriously.”


UKMO then updated its webpage in September 2013 largely saying the same as above and archived it in 2014.

Whatever they said then or say now, it is perfectly obvious that the RCP spreadsheets published internationally
from 4 countries *in 2010* (now archived at IIASA) did not included the above feedbacks. So from the outset

The RCPs were the primary basis of preparations for IPCC 5th Assessment and its Summary for policy-makers,
as Julia Slingo's reply makes clear, largely led by the UKMO. The lowest of these was RCP 2.6 for two degrees,
which is largely the same as the UK Climate Act of 2008. IPCC AR5 was published in November 2015.

The 1.5°C target in the UNFCCC's Paris Agreement in December 2015. This and the urgency of this,
was in no way anticipated or prepared for by UKMO & its colleagues.