Dear Dr. Aubrey Meyer
Please accept my apology for not having written to you sooner.
I would like to support your proposal to the UNFCC.
Chair of the International Green Purchasing Network
Emeritus Professor of the University of Tokyo, Japan
Visiting Professor of International Christian University
International Green Purchasing Network (IGPN) Secretariat
Cosmos Aoyama, 5-53-67 Jingumae,
Shibuya-ku, Tokyo 150-0001, Japan.
Three different scenarios for resource use up to 2050
- Scenario 1 Business-as-usual (BAU) BAU scenario assumes that developing countries adopt growth and development strategies aimed at ‘catching up’ with the resource consumption patterns of industrialized countries, this will result in the tripling of global annual resource extraction and consumption by 2050. Specifically, this means more than doubling biomass use, while almost quadrupling fossil fuel use and tripling the annual use of metals (ores) and construction minerals.
- Scenario 2 Moderate contraction and convergence Assumes substantial structural change in the dominant industrial production and consumption patterns. This scenario would require substantial economic structural change and massive investments in innovations for resource decoupling.
- Scenario 3 Tough contraction and convergence This scenario does not raise global resource consumption above the 2000 levels, and can hardly be addressed as a possible strategic goal by politicians.