'Uneconomic Growth Disorder' (UGD)

 Click logo to return to 'links-page'

Web Hits


The term Uneconomic Growth was coined by Herman Daly

Herman is peerless amonst the world's ecological economists.


'Expansion and Divergence' (E&D) is the systemic malfunction that led to the need to
create the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1992.

'Contraction and Convergence' (C&C) is the systematic correction that GCI proposed in
1995 to achieve the goal of the UNFCCC. In principle C&C was agreed at COP-3 in 1997.

In the chart below, five components of growth are measured and compared since 1750:

  1. Population
  2. Over/Under Production/Consumption
  3. Pollution (CO2 emissions from fossil fuel burning)

    correlated to global-growth/rise of

  4. Gross Global Product (International GDP),
  5. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations (ppmv)
  6. Temperature

The growth-rate of population was the fastest to start with;
But this was overtaken by the rate of production/consumption/pollution growth;
This is in turn has been overtaken by the growth-rate of GDP (the measure of increased-prosperity & poverty).

This growth matrix has become pathological & so is now called 'Uneconomic Growth Disorder' (UGD).
It is called UGD for four reasons.

  1. UGD is driven by the impossible goal of limitless growth (fairy tales of eternal economic growth);
  2. The 'benefits' of UGD are increasingly maldistributed (E&D);
  3. The 'benefits' of E&D are increasingly negated by both the social and the environmental damage it causes;
  4. This 'economic growth' is increasingly uneconomic (onconomic) and overwhelms organic & personal growth.

GDP growth is now a runaway train & more of this uneconomic growth-disorder will end badly for life on the planet.
The chart above was used in the XR Ex-Oil interview published by Prospect Magazine June 2022.

The chart above was the first in a pair of charts. The second below not published by Prospect Magazine, shows the real purpose
of creating the charts - i.e. to show both the history of the COP:GDP lockstpep (mentioned in the interview) with a projection of
decoupling GDP growth from achieving zero emissions globally by 2030 (XR) or 2040 (Medics) or 2050 (net zero UK Government).

Depending on how rapidly we unite to deal with this situation,
more delay means consequences that are increasingly dire.

As the chart above shows, acceleration is clearly evident in the rates of change of key vectors: -

  1. CO2 emissions
  2. CO2 concentrations
  3. Temperature

Not shown is the acceleration also clearly evident in: -

  1. ocean warming,
  2. ocean acidification,
  3. ice-melting,
  4. sea-level rise,
  5. forest burning

While the economic growth rates remains the fastest of all

Population growth rates remain slowest of all . . .

This excerpt from a recent report from JP Morgan suggests there is no global solution in sight . . . .