EAC Carbon Budget Enquiries - were the models valid?

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At COP-2 (1996)

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  1. Environmental Audit Committee (EAC) 'Carbon Budget Enquiries' (2009 - 2013)

  2. Concerned about underestimating the risks that are faced with the rates of climate change
    GCI presented CBAT as a cognitive framework within which to address this issue of feedbacks


  3. On its website UKMO admitted the omission of major feedbacks from its climate modelling
  4. But under oath, UKMO then denied these omissions in evidence to the EAC Enquiry in 2013 (saying GCI was lying)

    After the enquiry, UKMO removed their web-page admitting the omission of major feedback effects from their website
    & also from the archive of their website. However, in GCI's evidence to EAC, the words on their website were recorded here.
    UKMO was obviously unhappy with this proof being supplied as to their misleading the EAC on the matter of ommited feedbacks.

    In case this second memo to EAC from GCI is removed from the Parliamentary record,
    here it is at an independent link
    , as originally supplied to the EAC by GCI.

  5. The 'RCP' scenarios; sink failure rates modelled in RCP 8.5 (the path we're on)
  6. Emissions-Creep since UKCA (2008)
  7. Widely varying estimates of Emissions from Land Use Changes

In the BBC film 'Climate-Facts' (1919), climate scientist are lined up at the outset to comment around this rising temperature data-set.
Professor Michael Manne of Pennsylvania State University said, "it's all happening much faster than anyone thought possible."

 

. . . . (this is serious) . . . Temperature as in BBC Film 'Climate Facts'
but re-based to 0°C in 1750 (pre-industrial) & enlarged to show acceleration . . .

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    1. We're already (2019) at 1.5°C above 'pre-industrial' (1750) &
    2. on average the rate of increase has been acceleration (shown by the 'concave' shape-of-the-curve) throughout . . .