4 Heads of Argument for Economic Analysis
Key - Damages are going at twice the rate of Growth
[click image the mouse click in animation & press right-left arrows

  1. Contration and Concentrations
  2. Contraction and Convergence
  3. Contraction and Conversion
  4. Contraction and Damages

4 Heads of Argument for Economic Analysis
Key - Damages are going at twice the rate of Growth
'mouse-click' in animation & press right-left arrows to advance the image.

Contration & Concentrations Contraction & Convergence Contraction & Conversion Contraction & Damages

Acceptable [C1] Dangerous [C2] Impossible [C3]


Tap . . . Bath . . . Plug-hole: - Just an ANALOGY

Water from the 'tap' [like our 'Green-House-Gas' or GHG emissions] flowing into . . '
the 'bath' [like the global atmosphere], raises the level of the bath-water [like the rate of atmosphere GHG accumulation/concentration] . . . but, the 'bath' is also drained by . . . the 'plug-hole' [like the natural 'sinks for GHG' . . . [affecting/slowing the rate of atmospheric GHG accumulation].

A simple and familiar 'stock-flow' animated model for
GHG emissions:atmosphere-concentrations

To stop the bath over-flowing, the tap must turned off in the knowledge that the bath level will continue to rise while the tap is being turned off. This is true for emissions, once the need for UNFCCC-compliance in the form of safe and stable future GHG concentrations in the atmosphere is accepted.

An assessment of 'Contraction & Concentrations' and 'Contraction & Convergence' and the C&C targets and modelling behind rates of 'sink-efficiency' in the UK Government's 'Climate Act' [2008].
The '50:50' odds the UK Government gave for avoiding a temperature rise globally of more than two degrees with their emissions scenario are examined in this context.

They are linked the Government's wholly unsubstantiated claim that atmosphere concentrations will fall after 2050 even though we are projected as only halfway through a 100-year emissions 'contraction-event'.

Presentation/Animation Download and save as a self-executing PC file here & Mac file here

A letter 8th June 2011 from eminent persons sent to the UK Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change about these matters is here

C&C in the context of COP-15 Copenhagen [12/2009] with a view on what went wrong and what it takes to get it right.
Presentation/Animation - Also for 'download and save' as an
swf file for internet browsers or a self-executing [virus-free] Flash file for PCs.

Presentation/Animation - C&C in the context of IPCC AR4 [2007] and the so-called 'coupled-carbon-cycle' modelling reported quantitatively for the first time since IPCC FAR 1990. Essentially, due to 'positive feedback' effects in the carbon cycle, where rising temperature amplifies the rate at which atmospheric GHG concentration increases, accelerated rates of carbon emissions contraction are needed to meet a given concentration outcome. This is the increasingly crucial issue of changing rates of 'Sink-efficiency'. In depth analysis of this in relation to the UK Climate Act is here: -
Evidence to UK Environmental Audit Committee

At the RIBA Summit Venice in 2006, acontext-overview of 'risk' as: - |
Acceptable [C1] Dangerous [C2] Impossible [C3], rates of C&C were animated
in this
Presentation/Animation and also animated here and this supports the short article at: -
Climate Action book 2007 C&C
which is discussed in more detail here: - C&C_Chapter_Levene_Book_.pdf

The rates for Contraction:Concentrations and Contraction:Convergence
are compared in this
Animation as: -
Acceptable [C1] Dangerous [C2] Impossible [C3]
Rates of C&C at four different theoretical rates of sink-failure.

Presentation/Animation [2002] that relates the arithmetic of emissions contraction to issues of: - convergence, climate- science, geo-technology, oil and gas depletion, growth and damages, clean energy and implementation.

The arithmetic of emissions contraction relating to: -
Globalisation of Consciousness;
Climate Science 'Rising Risks;
Economic Fundamentals;
'Efficiency' Revisited;
Trends of 'Expansion and Divergence';
'Contraction & Convergence';
'Syntax for Global Climate Policies';
Presentation/Animation and Notes


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