Greta Thunberg

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Greta Thunberg, speaking at the United Nations Climate Summit in New York.

“My message is that we’ll be watching you."

“This is all wrong. I shouldn’t be up here. I should be back in school on the other side of the ocean.
Yet you all come to us young people for hope. How dare you!

“You have stolen my dreams and my childhood with your empty words. And yet I’m one of the lucky ones.
People are suffering. People are dying. Entire ecosystems are collapsing. We are in the beginning of a mass extinction,
and all you can talk about is money and fairy tales of eternal economic growth. How dare you!

For more than 30 years, the science has been crystal clear. How dare you continue to look away and come here
saying that you’re doing enough, when the politics and solutions needed are still nowhere in sight.

You say you hear us and that you understand the urgency. But no matter how sad and angry I am, I do not want to believe that.
Because if you really understood the situation and still kept on failing to act, then you would be evil. And that I refuse to believe.

“The popular idea of cutting our emissions in half in 10 years only gives us a 50 per cent chance of staying below 1.5 degrees,
and the risk of setting off irreversible chain reactions beyond human control. Fifty per cent may be acceptable to you.

But those numbers do not include tipping points, most feedback loops, additional warming hidden by toxic air pollution or the aspects of equity and climate justice.
They also rely on my generation sucking hundreds of billions of tons of your CO2 out of the air with technologies that barely exist.

So, a 50 per cent risk is simply not acceptable to us — we who have to live with the consequences.
How dare you pretend that this can be solved with just ‘business as usual’ and some technical solutions?


With today’s emissions levels, that remaining CO2 budget will be entirely gone within less than 8 1/2 years.
There will not be any solutions or plans presented in line with these figures here today, because these numbers are too uncomfortable.
And you are still not mature enough to tell it like it is.

You are failing us. But the young people are starting to understand your betrayal. The eyes of all future generations are upon you.
And if you choose to fail us, I say: We will never forgive you. “We will not let you get away with this. Right here, right now is where we draw the line.
The world is waking up. And change is coming, whether you like it or not.

Thank you.”

Greta Thunberg at the United Nations 2019

Here is the table 2.2 from the IPCC Special Report on 1.5°



Here are the numbers in Table 2.2 converted between Gigatonnes CO2 (Gt CO2) & Gigatonnes Carbon only (Gt C).

The left-hand column is designated "Additional Warming since 2006–2015 [°C]*(1)d"
This range of estimates from 0.3°C to 1.2°C shows: -

  • a 400% increase, which is surprisingly large for a short and recent period (2006–2016)
  • this has been graded from smallest (0.03°C) to largest (1.2°C) as the 15 budgets expand
  • the odds (probabilities - 66%, 50%, 33%) are then projected as a function of that 400% increase
  • which explains why the carbon budget values become so high as the year-zero in each case becomes so late.




    Here is the section stressed by Greta Thunberg

    It measures the available carbon per unit time to the year (zero) by when that is exhausted (i.e. the contraction rate).



    Here are all the global carbon budget weight-totals in GtC in Table 2.2 in groups of three (66% 50% 33% odds).
    The year each total reaches zero, as the weight of each budget is exhausted, is shown as well
    .

    What is also apparent is the extent of the discrepancy between the temperature rise shown in Table 2.2.
    and the temperature in RCP 2.5 published in IPCC AR5 in 2015 See second chart below.




    The overall weight of the budget over time (the path-integral) is the primary determinant of the atmospheric concentration rise.
    So this discrepancy between RCP 2.5 and Table 2.2 in IPCC's Special Report on 1.5° C is remarkable.

    The total budget weight in RCP 2.5 for 2.0° C is
    230 Gt C. In Table 2.2 in IPCC SR 1.5 230 Gt C (229 Gt C) is 66% odds for 1.5° C.
    If there was any pressure to increase carbon-budget-size/lower-the-temperature, it is more likely to have come from politics than from 'science'.

    With this sleight of hand we can become Paris Compliant for 1.5° at 2.0°.
    Whatever explains it, the effect of doing this is analagous to turning water into wine . . . .



    Here is the image enlarged . . .




    One of the authors of the IPCC Special Report - and table 2.2 - wrote to say this simply represented 'evolving science'.
    I replied that it was a failure to grasp the acceleration peril that we are in, attaching the following chart: -




    If acceleration is in the data, it can only be in the extrapolation . . .



    Here's what the climate-strikers &XR are calling for with CO2 emissions cuts,
    compared with the emissions path we are on . . . .





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Greta Thunberg, in Montreal Friday to take part in a global march for climate action, addressed a crowd estimated at half a million.
She called for continued protests, until world leaders agree to take concrete action.

Below is a full transcript of the 16-year-old Swede's speech.

"Bonjour Montreal. Je suis très heureuse d'être ici au Canada, au Québec. Merci beaucoup.

So, at least 500,000 here today. You should very proud of yourselves because this we have done together, and I cannot thank you enough for being here.

So around the world today, millions of people are marching right now. And it's just incredible to be united in such a way for a common cause.
It just feels great, doesn't it? But it feels great to be in Canada. It's a bit like coming home. You are very similar to Sweden, where I'm from.
You have moose, and we have moose. You have cold winters and lots of snow and pine trees. We have cold winters and lots of snow and pine trees.
You have the caribou, and we have the reindeer. You play ice hockey; we play ice hockey. You have maple syrup, & we have - well, forget about that one.

You are a nation that is allegedly a climate leader. And Sweden is also a nation that is allegedly a climate leader. And in both cases, it means absolutely nothing.
Because in both cases, it's just empty words. And the politics needed are still nowhere in sight. So we are basically the same.

Hundreds of thousands came out on Friday for the climate strike in Montreal. (Graham Hughes/THE CANADIAN PRESS)

Last week, well over four million people in over 170 countries striked for the climate. We marched for a living planet and a safe future for everyone.
We spoke the science and demanded that the people in power would listen to and act on the science. But our political leaders didn't listen.
This week, world leaders all around the world gathered in New York for the UN Climate Action Summit.
They disappointed us once again with their empty words and insufficient plans. We told them to unite behind the science, but they didn't listen.

So today, we are millions around the world striking and marching again. And we will keep on doing it until they listen.

If the people in power won't take their responsibility, then we will. It should not be up to us, but somebody needs to do it.

They say we shouldn't worry, that we should look forward to a bright future. But they forget that, if they would have done their job, we wouldn't need to worry.
If they had started acting in time, then this crisis wouldn't be the crisis it is today. And we promise, once they start taking the responsibility and do their job,
we will stop worrying and go back to school, go back to work.

'
We are changing the world': Greta Thunberg addresses hundreds of thousands at Montreal climate march

And once again, we are not communicating our opinions or political views. The climate and ecological crisis is beyond party politics.
We are communicating the current, best available science to some people — particularly those who, in many ways, have caused this crisis that science is too uncomfortable to address.
But we, who will have to live with the consequences, and indeed those who are living with the climate and ecological crisis already — we don't have a choice.

To stay below 1.5 degrees Celsius and give us a chance to avoid the risk of setting off irreversible chain reactions beyond human control-
to do that, we must speak clearly and tell it like it is and tell the truth.

Greta Thunberg, in her own words, at the Montreal climate march 14:50 The Swedish teen addressed an estimated half a million demonstrators in Montreal on Friday.

In the IPCC [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] SR-1.5 reports that came out last year, it says on page 108 in chapter 2 that to have a 67 per cent chance of staying below 1.5 degrees of global temperature rise — the best odds given by the IPCC — the world had 420 gigatonnes of CO2 left to emit back on Jan. 1, 2018.

And today, that figure is already down to less than 350 gigatonnes.

They say, 'Let children be children.' We agree. Let us be children. Do your part. Communicate these kinds of numbers instead of leaving that responsibility to us. - Greta Thunberg

With today's emissions levels, that remaining CO2 budget will be entirely gone within less than eight and a half years. And please note that these calculations do not include already locked-in warming hidden by toxic air pollution, non-linear tipping points, gross-feedback loops or the aspect of equity climate justice.

They are also relying on my generation, your generation, sucking hundreds of billions of tonnes of CO2 out of the air with technologies that barely exist. Not one single time have I heard any politician, journalist or business leader even mention these numbers.

They say, "Let children be children." We agree. Let us be children. Do your part. Communicate these kinds of numbers instead of leaving that responsibility to us. Then we can go back to "being children."

And we are not in school today. You are not at work today. Because this is an emergency, and we will not be bystanders. Some would say we are wasting lesson time. We say we are changing the world.

Photos The best signs from Montreal's climate march

So that when we are older, we will be able to look our children in the eyes and say that we did everything we could back then. Because that is our moral duty, and we will never stop doing that. We will never stop fighting for a living planet and for a safe future — for our future.

We will do everything in our power to stop this crisis from getting worse, even if that means skipping school or work. Because this is more important. We have been told so many times that there is no point in doing this. That we won't have an impact anyway. That we can't have an impact and make a difference. But I think we have proven that to be wrong by now.

Prime Minister and Liberal leader Justin Trudeau speaks with Swedish environmental activist Greta Thunberg in Montreal on Friday, September 27, 2019. (Ryan Remiorz/The Canadian Press)

Through history, the most important changes in society have come from the bottom up, from grassroots. And the numbers are still coming in. But it looks like 6.6 million people have joined the Week for Future, the strikes for this [Friday] and last Friday [when demonstrations took place in the U.S. and elsewhere.]

That is one of the biggest demonstrations in history. The people have spoken, and we will continue to speak until our leaders listen and act.

We are the change, and change is coming.
"

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