Dear Aubrey,

I agree with and support the C&C proposal.

I prefer 2050 as a convergence year.


Hyungsup Lee

Seminar A meta-analysis of regional variation in climate change mitigation costs:
Extent, causes, and implications

This thesis explores the neglected issue of regional distribution of climate change mitigation costs. Using advanced methodologies and data from a multi-modelling exercise (specifically, EMF-22), and focusing on economy-wide costs under a single global carbon tax regime, the study conducts a meta-analysis to investigate how and why mitigation costs for different countries vary, and what the welfare implications are.

What are the welfare implications of regional cost variation? An analysis based on Gini coefficients reveals that global income inequality increases after mitigation, implying that (uncompensated) global mitigation is regressive. Although the increase in the Gini is small, the impact of the regressivity on the global cost of mitigation is large. This is shown by use of the concept of ‘equally distributed equivalent (EDE)’ cost. Though the effect is scenario dependent and declines over time, taking account of regressivity increases global mitigation costs in 2020 by 64-90 per cent depending on the degree of inequality aversion.

So far the analysis has ignored the possibility of international transfers of compensation. The final part of the analysis tests the extent to which commonly proposed international financing schemes will alleviate the regressivity of regional mitigation costs. The main finding here is that the two commonly proposed schemes – the Copenhagen Funding agreement and the Contraction and Convergence by 2050 – will at most eliminate regressivity. They are not sufficient to make the global mitigation effort a progressive one.

The thesis concludes with a discussion of limitations and future research questions. While the analysis is by no means exhaustive, overall the contribution of the thesis is to show that detecting, analysing and thinking through the implications of regional variation in mitigation costs deserve much more attention, and that attempts to do so will bring rich insights from both an academic perspective and a geo-political/negotiating one.

Hyungsup Lee is a PhD candidate in the EMD program at the Crawford School of Public Policy. Prior to joining the Crawford School, Hyungsup worked for the Ministry of Environment of Korea in the area of domestic climate change policy, air quality and transportation environment. Speaker/Host: Hyungsup Lee Venue: Miller Theatre, Old Canberra House (Bldg 132), Lennox Crossing, ANU Date: Monday, 26 November 2012 Time: 12:30 PM - 1:30 PM Enquiries: Matthew Dornan on 6125 1592 Copyright | Disclaimer | Privacy | Contact ANU Please direct all enquiries to: Billboard Page authorised by: Director, Communications & External Liaison Office as relevant officer The Australian National University CRICOS Provider Number: 00120C - ABN: 522 34063906


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